Interesting about having to build a business case for the new product. Assuming it's going to be used by non-pro-level racers and avid track enthusiasts, it's going to be a fraction of a fraction of total market of 1199s.
Ducati total model sales from Audi for Q1 2013:
<<
Ducati Sales by Model January to March 2013
Model Family Units Sold %
Diavel 1,309 13.3%
Hypermotard 567 5.8%
Monster 3,042 31.0%
Multistrada 1,890 19.3%
Streetfighter 906 9.2%
Superbike 2,088 21.3%
Other 15 0.2%
Total 9,817 100%
Ducati sold 9,817 motorcycles in the first three months of 2013, according to the first quarter report from parent company Audi. The first quarter sales result represents a 5.2% decline from the 10,360 Ducati motorcycles sold in the same quarter of 2012 when the company was owned by Investindustrial.
Sales were down in Europe where the economy continues to struggle. According to Ducati, the worldwide demand for 500cc and larger motorcycles contracted by 17.0%, so Ducati’s sales decrease wasn’t as bad as for other companies.
The U.S. continues to be Ducati’s largest sales market, with the company delivering 1,605 motorcycles to customers over the first quarter.
Broken down by model family, the Monster lineup was Ducati’s best seller, with 3,042 units sold, nearly a third of Ducati’s sales. Superbikes such as the 1199 Panigale and 848EVO remain a key part of Ducati’s brand identity, representing 21.3% of sales
>>
Assuming that the Panigale was 75% of the Superbike sales = 1,566 units. Further extrapolating that Q1-Q4 sales are equal (probably not) makes the total number of Panigales around 6,264. Say double that number from 2012 to make the total number of applicable Panigale's to be 12,528 by the end of this year.
Judging by the responses on this thread, it may be about 20% of the population are into tracking their bikes and might spring for the DDA+ or similar alternative to track performance analysis (2,505). Assuming that they have equal knowledge about the availability and superiority of your product vs. DDA+ (doubtful), then maybe you might get 60% of them to choose your product as some people will only go with DP-branded accessories. So with all of those terribly extrapolated assumptions, you might sell 1,500 units in 2014, maybe more factoring in 2014 calendar year 1199 sales.
Assuming the development cost and BOM are average for a manufacturing company, and assuming the margins are around 50% for retail and leaving 25% for distributors, leaves you with an industry-standard 15%-20% per-unit EBIT. If that's the case, and you were able to achieve those numbers WHILE keeping the product competitively priced against DDA+, then I would estimate that you would need about 3,000 units to break even.
So as with most new products in competitive niche categories, it wouldn't be financially successful until late-year 2 or year 3.
All that said, I still want one!
Ducati total model sales from Audi for Q1 2013:
<<
Ducati Sales by Model January to March 2013
Model Family Units Sold %
Diavel 1,309 13.3%
Hypermotard 567 5.8%
Monster 3,042 31.0%
Multistrada 1,890 19.3%
Streetfighter 906 9.2%
Superbike 2,088 21.3%
Other 15 0.2%
Total 9,817 100%
Ducati sold 9,817 motorcycles in the first three months of 2013, according to the first quarter report from parent company Audi. The first quarter sales result represents a 5.2% decline from the 10,360 Ducati motorcycles sold in the same quarter of 2012 when the company was owned by Investindustrial.
Sales were down in Europe where the economy continues to struggle. According to Ducati, the worldwide demand for 500cc and larger motorcycles contracted by 17.0%, so Ducati’s sales decrease wasn’t as bad as for other companies.
The U.S. continues to be Ducati’s largest sales market, with the company delivering 1,605 motorcycles to customers over the first quarter.
Broken down by model family, the Monster lineup was Ducati’s best seller, with 3,042 units sold, nearly a third of Ducati’s sales. Superbikes such as the 1199 Panigale and 848EVO remain a key part of Ducati’s brand identity, representing 21.3% of sales
>>
Assuming that the Panigale was 75% of the Superbike sales = 1,566 units. Further extrapolating that Q1-Q4 sales are equal (probably not) makes the total number of Panigales around 6,264. Say double that number from 2012 to make the total number of applicable Panigale's to be 12,528 by the end of this year.
Judging by the responses on this thread, it may be about 20% of the population are into tracking their bikes and might spring for the DDA+ or similar alternative to track performance analysis (2,505). Assuming that they have equal knowledge about the availability and superiority of your product vs. DDA+ (doubtful), then maybe you might get 60% of them to choose your product as some people will only go with DP-branded accessories. So with all of those terribly extrapolated assumptions, you might sell 1,500 units in 2014, maybe more factoring in 2014 calendar year 1199 sales.
Assuming the development cost and BOM are average for a manufacturing company, and assuming the margins are around 50% for retail and leaving 25% for distributors, leaves you with an industry-standard 15%-20% per-unit EBIT. If that's the case, and you were able to achieve those numbers WHILE keeping the product competitively priced against DDA+, then I would estimate that you would need about 3,000 units to break even.
So as with most new products in competitive niche categories, it wouldn't be financially successful until late-year 2 or year 3.
All that said, I still want one!
