if Lorenzo can figure out how to keep his exact precision lap after lap, which the track cools 10 degrees celsius over the course of the race, he'll win.
but in terms of quickly adapting to changing conditions, that would take the GOAT. I've never seen a wet race at Phillip Island but if that were to happen, Rossi would almost certainly arrive at Sepang sitting in the catbird seat.
Rossi is 18 points ahead. He needs to gain a mere net 8 points over the next two races and he's locked up the title.
He also needs to do this because if Rossi and Lorenzo go into Valencia dead even or just a few points either way, Rossi would be at a significant disadvantage.