We have identified a bit more data. Both bikes that caught on fire were both using stock exhausts. Does that mean anything. Not sure but it is data.
Are there are some differences between the Termi and stock? Absolutely
Could these differences contribute to a different result? Very hard to say and don't think we could even state something of that nature until we had much more data showing correlations. However, correlation is not causation. It would help to further identify the vital few X's in the problem solving method. I typically employ 8D and 7 Step methods and then DOE to help isolate the Critical few through statistical analysis methods. None of which I can do without a model to test the theories and a lot more data. We are left to speculate. The data flow should be to Ducati who should be putting together the correlations and specific conditions to narrow down the potential cause and then test their theories. Somehow I doubt this level of engineering problem solving is being deployed. I hope I am wrong but based upon the crap OHWeld is being dealt, they either know the cause and don't want the horrible publicity of a safety recall or they too freaking arrogant to look into the issues with great focus. Oh this crap is really starting to piss me off.
We all know an oil fire is hard to start but not out of the realm of possibility based upon the incident by Elitesoldier. He had a significant oil leak followed very closely by a fire. There were no fuel leaks, the fire was contained in the lower portion of the bike, fuel ignites very quickly and easily and would most likely occur much higher in the engine. Doesn't have to happen that way but more probable and that is all we can go on. This is why I am always looking for more information. More about conditions. In both cases the bikes were moving and probably at higher temperatures. These higher temps create higher probability for ignition of oil. The movement factor also helps to reduce the oil:air proportions and further increases the ignition properties of oil. Is it oil. I don't know but there is much more evidence pointing that way than any other data at this point IMHO. We just got to keep information flowing in and look for correlations. That is exactly how I identified the exact conditions that would replicate the hard start on my bike. Had I not followed the level of diligence that I did, they would have continued to say, "Sorry Mr Coots, we could not duplicate the issue." It took me calling John Berntsen and telling him that until they took into account all of the factors that I had identified, then of course they would not be able to duplicate. I specifically told Mr Berntsen, " You know why they can't duplicate the problem.... because it hasn't reached 90F here in Austin. Have them test it under the exact conditions I have specified and it will fail. Guess what, they actually listened and they duplicated the hard start every time. That is how we isolated the problem to the fuel pump. We put two models into the same conditions and they took extensive data and showed that my bike differed from the good model in fuel pump delivery pressure under the prescribed conditions. Conditions are one of the most if not most important criteria to gather in any problem solving approach. Hopefully someone will read this rant and pick up a few pointers to help the process along.
